Day Sixteen – Golden Globe Predictions

16 01 2010

Full disclosure: I haven’t seen all the nominees. That doesn’t seem to make much of a difference when making predictions like this, whether it’s the Globes or the Oscars. In the end it’s all a popularity contest, but most of the time they’re popular for a good reason.

I’ve taken the list of nominees from EW.com, who have their own predictions as well.

I’ve seen most of the TV shows that were nominated, so we’ll start there. I’ve pulled out mini-series because, aside from the fact that I haven’t seen one, I don’t understand why the category still exists.

Here are my best educated guesses:

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Big Love (HBO)
Dexter (Showtime)
House (Fox)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Blood (HBO)

Mad Men will likely win the category. It’s been a favourite of awards shows since it’s inception. They’re the cool kids and I suspect they will stay that way. I would really like to see Dexter win, though. The show gets better and better with every episode and it’s the only show I can’t wait to see.

Mad Men is the obvious choice for best TV drama. It's the new Sopranos and will likely win this category until they're off the air.

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
30 Rock (NBC)
Entourage (HBO)
Glee (FOX)
Modern Family (ABC)
The Office (NBC)

30 Rock will likely win. It’s the other cool kid. I could see Glee stealing it as well. Personally, I think The Office has earned it more than anyone else. They’ve managed to sustain the awkward yet likable feeling of the show over so many years. I’m loving Modern Family, but it’ll have its chance in coming years.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Simon Baker, The Mentalist
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Bill Paxton, Big Love

Jon Hamm will probably take this one. He’s been in the public eye a lot more recently, so people will actually like to see him get on stage this time. Don Draper is one of the deepest and most conflicted characters on television and this season was no different. Michael C. Hall definitely deserves to win one of these years. His ability to make a cold, hard killer so lovable is an achievement in itself and he should get his recognition for it.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES –
DRAMA
Glenn Close, Damages
January Jones, Mad Men
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Anna Paquin, True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Here’s where things get murky. I’ve seen two out of the five nominations here. Julianna Margulies is the name I’ve been hearing a lot lately, so my shot in the dark would have to go with her.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES –
COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
David Duchovny, Californication
Thomas Jane, Hung
Matthew Morrison, Glee

Alec Baldwin will likely take this again. Movie stars turned TV stars always take the awards. I would like to see Thomas Jane take it. His pathetic yet likable man-whore on Hung seems like he’s always on the cusp of a suicidal jump in the river, but always seems to pick himself back up and pull through.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES –
COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Toni Collette, United States of Tara
Courteney Cox, Cougar Town
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Lea Michele, Glee

This one is really hard to pick. I’m going to say Edie Falco as more of a make-up vote for her work on The Sopranos. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was given to Tina Fey, since the TV world seems to love her so.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES,
MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Michael Emerson, Lost
Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
William Hurt, Damages
John Lithgow, Dexter
Jeremy Piven, Entourage

Neil Patrick Harris has been getting a lot of attention this year. Between his award show hosting stints, his web series Dr. Horrible or for his role as Barney on How I Met Your Mother, NPH has become the guy to watch. John Lithgow really deserves it though. His role at the Trinity Killer on Dexter was so chilling, I can never look at him the same way again.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION

Jane Adams, Hung
Rose Byrne, Damages
Jane Lynch, Glee
Janet McTeer, Into the Storm
Chloe Sevigny, Big Love

I keep hearing about how incredible Jane Lynch is on Glee. She’s funny and everyone seems to love her, so anyone else winning would be a shocker.

Next up, we have the Film predictions. I’ve seen a lot fewer of these, so many of them will be outright guesses. I’m working on seeing them before the Oscars, so we’ll see how they sync up then.

I got these nominations from EW.com as well.

Here we go:

Best Picture, Drama
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

I haven’t seen Precious or Up in the Air yet, but from what I’m hearing everywhere, it’ll go to Up in the Air. Since the Toronto International Film Festival I’ve heard about how Up in the Air is a lock to win. I tried to get tickets at the festival and it was nearly impossible. The rush line was to big for a normal human being to take. I was lucky enough to be there for Juno, but this seems to be Jason Reitman’s best film yet.

I will be shocked and upset if (500) Days of Summer doesn't win Best Comedy/Musical

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
500 Days of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

It’s nice to see The Hangover on here, but I doubt it’ll get any recognition outside of the nomination. I would say it will go to (500) Days of Summer. Its quirky style and heart-wrenching story really make it a favourite and it’s easily one of the best films of last year.

Best Actor, Drama
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Tobey Maguire, Brothers

My guess here, since I’ve seen none of these pictures is Jeff Bridges. Voters, in this case the Hollywood Foreign Press, seems to love people who can act and sing. Bridges does both in Crazy Heart, and from what I saw on Conan last night, he seems to be quite good at it.

Best Actress, Drama
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

The way early release of Precious may have cooled off any potential win by Gabourey Sidibe. Had this been last September, she would be a lock, but I almost feel that Sandra Bullock has stolen the spotlight from her. She’s had a career year with two major hits, and one major flop, so I have to go with the popular vote on this one.

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Robert Downey, Jr., Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man

This one is a hard one. Matt Damon was excellent in The Informant!, but I don’t know if the movie itself will take away from his performance. I’d like to see, and based on that will guess, Joseph Gordon-Levitt win this one. The hopeless romantic in (500) Days of Summer was one who was so pathetic that you should hate him, yet you still liked him. You knew he was setting himself up for heartbreak, but you honestly believe he doesn’t see that himself.

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Sandra Bullock, The Proposal
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Julia Roberts, Duplicity
Meryl Streep, It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Meryl Streep will end up spliting her own vote, otherwise this would be easy and I would say she’s a lock. Instead it’s between Julia, Marion and Sandra. I’m going to go with Sandra Bullock again. I get the feeling if they give her one award, they have to give her two to make a statement. I’m not sure what that statement is, but that is just how I feel these award shows tend to go.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

If Christoph Waltz doesn’t win for this category, it’ll be the biggest snub in years. He’s created a villain to go right next to Darth Vader and Hans Gruber in the Movie Baddy Hall of Fame.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

I’m hearing Mo’Nique will take this one. She might get this before her unwillingness to campaign makes her lose an Oscar that she would otherwise win.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

I think James Cameron will win this, not because he made the best film, but because he has paid for this decade of films with profits from Avatar’s theatrical run alone.

Best Screenplay
Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Nancy Meyers, It’s Complicated
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

I’m guessing Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner will win this one. Mark Boal would be a safe bet, but The Hurt Locker just wasn’t popular enough outside of film critic circles. I wouldn’t be shocked if they gave it to Tarantino, just for the sake of giving it to Tarantino.

Best Score
Up
The Informant!
Avatar
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

I honestly have no idea here. I’m just going to say Where the Wild Things Are so that they can give that film something.

Best Song
“Cinema Italiano,” Nine
“I Want to Come Home,” Everybody’s Fine
“I Will See You,” Avatar
“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart
“Winter,” Brothers

I’ll say I Want to Come Home by Paul McCartney will win. This category is always a popularity contest at the Globes. Paul McCartney wins that race.

Best Animated Film
Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess & The Frog
Up

I say Up, hands down best animated picture of the year, if not the decade.

Best Foreign Language Film
Baria
Broken Embraces
The Maid
A Prophet
The White Ribbon

The White Ribbon was getting amazing reviews around the Toronto Film Festival. If it could sustain that hype, it’ll take this category.

And those are my picks. I’ll see all of the Oscar nominations by the time those come out, but for now I had to make some guesses.

We’ll see how I do Sunday night!

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2 responses

17 01 2010
Danon

I feel like I need to put my votes in on this. Keep in mind that I am not a big TV guy. I know some of it, but more of the movies.

Best TV Series – Drama
True Blood is the only one on the list I watch.

Best TV Series Actor – Drama
Everyone talks about Dexter, and Hall has waited.

Best TV Series Actress – Drama
Anna Paquin again!

Best TV Series Actor – Comedy or Musical
Baldwin is the juggernaut, but I’d love to see Duchovny take it. Hank Moody is awesome!

Best TV Series Actress – Comedy or Musical
Edie Falco is a logical choice, but I’d like to see Toni Collette win. I thought she did a great job with all four parts she played.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES,
MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
NPH is all the rage, but I know Lithgow can really pull off creepy characters so I have no doubt hs performance was great.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
I think Jane Adams should get this one. Tanya was the run away performance in Hung.

Best Picture – Drama
I would love to see Up In The Air take it. It’s a great flick. I have been hearing a lot about The Hurt Locker, and of course there is Avatar.

Best Picture Musical or Comedy
This is a packed list. It’s Complicated, and Julie and Julia are both really popular. The Hangover was also a huge success, but (500) Days of Summer was the sleeper hit of last year, and a really good flick so I would lean that way.

Best Actor – Drama
I would think this category would be between Clooney, who was great, or Freeman, who has yet to see a leading role award. But I think it should go to Tobey Maguire. His performance in Brothers was realy strong.

Best Actress – Drama
Bullock seems like a logical choice.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Day-Lewis is always an award favourite. I think Damon should get it. That character was excellent.

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
I think award shows always applaude characters who are real people so I think Streep will take it for Julie and Julia. But I thought Bullock was great in The Proposal.

Best Supporting Actor
Like you said, if Christoph Waltz doesn’t win something is seriously wrong. That was the best villian in years.

Best Supporting Actress
I would like to see Anna Kendrick win this. She is excellent in Up In The Air.

Best Director
I would like to see Reitman take it, or Tarantino because Inglorious seemed outside his comfort zone, but it only makes sense that Cameron would win because the vision he brought to the screen was so large.

Best Screenplay
I would love to see Blomkamp win just because I think Avatar will kill there chances for an effects oscar. Reitman would also be great, but I think Tarantino might take it this year.

Best Score
I can’t recall much of the music from these movies. Pixar always has good music, but I thought the score in Avatar was really good, so that would be my vote.

Best Song
This is always a hard one for me. I am still mad about Springsteen last year. I remember thinking winter was a good song, but what you said about McCartney makes sense.

Best Animated Film
Up was great, but I am sick of Pixar taking it all the time. Princess and The Frog is a return to classic Disney. I am fully behind Fantastic Mr. Fox. I think the animation is great, and Anderson did a really good job with the script, voices casting, and direction.

It would be foolish for me to comment on foreign language films.

18 01 2010
CanadianOranges

The only thing that I disagree with is Jane Adams on Hung. I find her character to be a little annoying. I realize that’s the point, but I feel like it keeps the show from ever really starting.

That and I wasn’t crazy for US of Tara. It got old pretty fast.

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